The challenge

Metrolinx requested CANCEA to investigate the significance and sensitivity of inter-region transit demand in the Greater Golden Horseshoe by 2041 with specific attention to (1) Municipalities reaching P2G population and job targets; (2) Accelerated industry structural changes in remote working habits (eg. made evident by COVID19). <u>General conclusions</u> <ul> <li>Transit will continue to play a key role in the GGH even if remote working persists after the pandemic <ul> <li>Using P2G assumptions:</li> <li>Peel, Toronto, and Durham would have the greatest increase in people living and working in the same region</li> <li>Durham shows strong local job growth not seen historically including largest percentage increase in people living and working in the region</li> <li>Increased commutes from Toronto to surrounding regions, particularly Peel and York. York receiving significant in-commutes from Peel and Durham as well</li> <li>Growth in cross-commuting between Halton and Peel</li> </ul> </li> <li>Even with more complete communities, significant increases in people traveling between regions will be required</li> <li>Some P2G assumptions require very significant deviations from what statistical simulation would suggest. For example: <ul> <li>Significant shifts from trends in location of dwellings and locations of jobs</li> <li>Unconstrained mobility of households</li> <li>Almost 40% increase in the capacity of construction industry to build</li> </ul> </li> </ul> &nbsp;